Cloud Computing Bull or Bear?

In February, as I began my cloud watching in earnest, I wrote the following:

“Only time will tell if my cloud watching is attention well spent.  If the cloud is indeed "the future of the Internet", then yes.  If the cloud is merely a repackaging of everything that we already do, then no.  Most likely, the cloud's promise falls somewhere in between, landing closer to the future than the past.”

Since then, of course, I’ve launched Elemental Cloud Computing, which some have interpreted as a now bullish position on cloud computing.  That would be a misinterpretation. Consistent with that that February post, my interest in cloud computing remains understanding the potential in terms of opportunity and risk, and the ties to my on-going work and interest areas:

“Added to this (more likely than not) significance, are parallels with my own writings, work and interest areas (current and past), including architecture realization through blending strategies, the power of service grids, the ceding of applications to business capabilities, the morphing of boxes to platforms, and (forthcoming) creating an active information tier.”

Over the weekend, I answered an email inquiry from a Financial Analyst at a Securities firm, who wanted my opinion on “clouds”.  My (unedited) response:

“As for cloud computing, it's very early.  The economics make cloud computing attractive, especially in tough economic times.  However, the savings need to be weighed against very real risks posed by security, compliance and overall stability.

Given the early stage and limited adoption stories, I find myself cautiously optimistic about the space.  However, there is a real risk that the industry loses itself in the rampant hype, forgoing necessary investment and innovation, and falling back on cloud-washing current products.  In that case, cloud computing will be nothing but the biggest hype wave (yet) to crash.

So, long winded way of saying, I'm neutral for now.”

Cloud computing bull or bear?  Neither yet.  Neutral for now.  But, I’m intrigued enough to increase investment of my attention.  You should too.

Comments

[Martin Harris, Director Product Management, Platform Computing]

At the beginning of this year, I would have completely agreed with your sentiments – but now I’m not so sure. As a vendor in the private cloud management space, it’s been an interesting (read: nerve-wracking!) year, but I’m happy to say several of the abundant cloud research projects we’ve been involved with are turning into technology investments in private cloud management tools. We now have a handful of private cloud adoption stories in Financial Services, Research, and Software (to add to our 20-year heritage in grid and cluster computing) – with 2010 looking to be the breakout year for cloud adoption across a number of other segments.

So I’m with you in that this is still an early market, primarily for early adopters in the next year. But couple our successes with an interesting stat tweeted by one of my colleagues attending the Gartner conference this week (https://twitter.com/nwerstiuk) – and I definitely have one foot in the bull’s stirrup now…